The Socio-Ecological Axis of Small Island States: What can the Mauritian Protests Reveal About Resilience in Seychelles?

Nov 12, 2026

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Nirmal Shah

Water shortages and rising prices brought people onto the streets in Mauritius in October. The protests escalated after a police shooting, against a backdrop of longstanding grievances over the marginalisation of parts of the Mauritian Creole community. Those grievances have a specifically Mauritian history. Seychelles where Creole culture is predominant doesn’t share that risk. What it does share though is the risk of rising food and fuel prices coinciding with disruption to basic services, amidst a greying society buffeted by social ills and climate change. ^{[1, 2]}

Who pays when prices are held down?

Seychelles has more room to respond, with projected public debt at about 55% of GDP compared with roughly 88% in Mauritius. But the World Bank expects growth to slow from 5.8% in 2025 to 1.1% in 2026, making it harder to cushion households and finance services. ^{[3, 4, 5]}

The government of Seychelles has wisely restored grocery discounts for low-income households, capped markups on selected staples and absorbed part of the rise in fuel prices. Holding electricity tariffs steady through December averted a potential increase of 56 cents per kilowatt-hour. The IMF found that price support helped keep inflation low. However, that weakened some public enterprises and reduced their dividends to government. ^{[5, 6, 7, 8, 9].} There’s no such thing as a free lunch.

The cost of climate change

Sea level, measured at the Seychelles International Airport, rose about 17 centimetres between 1993 and 2025. High tides slowed drainage during October’s floods on La Digue.

Three desalination plants delivered after July’s restrictions will help in dry spells, but the running costs are tied to imported fuel. ^{[10, 11, 12, 13]}

Without further action, the World Bank estimates climate damage could leave Seychelles’ economy 4.6–6.4% smaller in 2050 than it otherwise would be. Its figures imply about US$130 million in additional public and private adaptation investment in 2026–2030, mainly for infrastructure, coastal protection and disaster risk reduction. At past funding levels, the US$27 million annual shortfall is for adaptation and emissions reduction together. ^[14]

What reefs, mangroves and wetlands protect

It takes money to conserve, manage and restore natural infrastructure such as forests, coral reefs, and wetlands which provide vital ecosystem services for people and the economy. Reefs take some of the force out of waves before they reach shore. Mangroves help stabilise the coast and shelter young fish. Wetlands hold water during heavy rain and release it slowly, reducing runoff and helping sustain streams in dry spells. Losing these services exposes homes and roads to greater damage and puts fishing and tourism incomes at risk. ^{[14, 15, 16, 17]}

A 2022 assessment for the Seychelles Marine Spatial Plan estimated US$51.5 million a year in visitor spending tied to reef activities such as diving and snorkelling. A 2020 World Bank study put the cost of restoring 15 reef sites at US$18.4–26.7 million, plus US$1.3–1.8 million a year for maintenance. ^{[14, 17]}

Social changes exposes further vulnerability

The National Development Strategy projects that about one in five residents will be 65 or older by 2050. The government has raised the retirement benefit and funds home care, chronic disease screening and drug rehabilitation. The World Health Organization reports that more than 30% of adults aged 55 to 74 have diabetes. Obesity increases the risk of chronic illness, while high drug dependence weighs on working-age people and their families. ^{[18, 19, 20, 21]}

The budget models ageing using broad spending and productivity assumptions. It does not estimate paid work lost to illness, drug addiction, alcoholism, or caring for relatives. Demand for treatment and care can rise as household earnings and tax receipts come under pressure. ^{[18, 19]}

Before the next shock

Another fuel-price spike during a dry spell would raise the cost of producing water just as families face higher food and transport bills. The budget should show how relief will be paid for and what utilities need to maintain their networks.

Protecting reefs, mangroves and wetlands belongs in the same budget. Fill a wetland and the rain it once held has to go somewhere. When reefs or mangroves lose their ability to blunt waves, more money may have to go into sea defences and repairs to roads, homes and hotels. Seychelles should weigh the cost of looking after these places against the damage they help prevent and the fishing and tourism incomes they support.

References

1. Megatrends Afrika (2026). Mauritius’s Miracle Has a Leak

2. Le Monde (2026). À l’île Maurice, une colère qui dépasse la crise de l’eau

3. World Bank (2026). Macro Poverty Outlook for Seychelles

4. IMF (2026). Mauritius Article IV consultation

5. IMF (2026). Seychelles post-financing assessment mission

6. State House Seychelles (2025). Cabinet decision on household assistance

7. Seychelles Official Gazette (2026). Maximum wholesale and retail mark-up order

8. State House Seychelles (2026). Phased approach to fuel pricing

9. Seychelles News Agency (2026). Electricity tariffs held through year-end

10. Seychelles News Agency (2026). Sea-level rise at Pointe Larue

11. Seychelles News Agency (2026). October flooding and landslides